最近几个星期，伊朗支持的伊拉克什叶派武装组织加大了对以色列的火箭和导弹袭击，这引起了华盛顿和一些伊朗盟友的担忧，他们担心，如果他们流血，以色列可能会进行报复，导致地区局势升级。

　　尽管西方官员和以色列专家认为，这些袭击通常来自数百英里(公里)之外，对以色列构成的威胁比不上哈马斯和真主党的直接袭击，但它们的数量和技术都有所增加。

　　尽管西方官员和以色列专家认为，这些袭击通常来自数百英里(公里)之外，对以色列构成的威胁比不上哈马斯和真主党的直接袭击，但它们的数量和技术都有所增加。

　　根据美国官员和以色列军方的公开声明，至少有两枚导弹击中了目标，许多导弹不得不被美国和以色列的防御系统击落。

　　自5月以来，巡航导弹等新型武器一直在定期使用，防空系统更难摧毁它们。

　　“总的来说，袭击的强度和使用的武器系统的类型都急剧升级，”总部位于美国的华盛顿近东政策研究所(institute for Near East Policy)的研究员迈克·奈特(Mike Knights)说，他一直在追踪袭击事件。他说:“这使以色列的任务复杂化，而且增加了财政成本。”

　　路透社采访了十几个人，其中包括伊拉克武装组织的消息人士，以及伊朗在该地区盟友网络中的其他派系，也就是所谓的“抵抗轴心”，以及美国和其他地区官员。他们中的大多数人都要求匿名，以便对这个敏感问题做出坦率的评估。

　　They said the attacks by Iraqi factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba, were a cause for rising concern for Washington and also viewed with unease among some in Iran and its powerful Axis ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has carefully calibrated its own engagements with Israel to prevent all-out regional conflict.

　　"They could get the Axis involved in something it does not currently want," a senior figure in the Axis of Resistance said, describing the view among pro-Iran groups on condition he not be identified.

　　伊朗和真主党，这个网络中最有组织的成员，过去一直在努力控制伊拉克的派系。

　　参与袭击以色列的伊拉克主要什叶派武装派别之一的努贾巴(Nujaba)的发言人穆萨维(Hussein al-Mousawi)告诉路透社，袭击是伊拉克组织角色的自然演变，目的是增加加沙战争的成本。他们打算从任何地方发动攻击，只要有必要。

　　穆萨维说:“抵抗组织的行动不受时间或空间界限的限制。“我们作为抵抗者，只要我们是正确的，我们代表了民众和官方的意愿，就不会害怕后果。”

　　伊拉克政府谨慎地平衡着与华盛顿和德黑兰的联盟关系，虽然没有正式批准空袭，但却无法或不愿阻止空袭。

　　批评人士说，这显示出总理穆罕默德·什叶派·苏丹尼在包括伊朗支持的武装组织在内的联合政府中的权力有限，并可能破坏重塑伊拉克稳定和开放商业形象的努力。

　　伊拉克不承认以色列，2022年的一项法律将以死刑或终身监禁惩罚那些试图使关系正常化的人。以色列认为伊拉克是伊朗的附庸国，是伊朗向包括真主党在内的其他武装组织提供武器的主要通道。

　　The Israeli and Iraqi governments did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. State Department declined to comment.

　　ESCALATING THREAT

　　The Iraqi groups trace their roots to the fight against US troops in Iraq after the toppling of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. They have since grown their regional reach, mirroring the evolution of other Iranian allies such as the Houthis in Yemen who have launched strikes on shipping in the Red Sea.

　　Iraqi groups joined the Syrian civil war in support of Iran's ally President Bashar al-Assad, gaining a foothold in territory near the border with Israel. A shadowy Iraqi group claimed drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2021 and 2022.

　　The attacks by Iraqi groups on Israel are launched from areas south of Baghdad and in the Iraqi-Syrian border area where Iran-backed factions hold sway, according to Knights.

　　To get from Iraq to Israel, projectiles must fly over Syria, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.

　　While Iran has been keen to have Iraqi factions contribute to the regional battle against Israel, their propensity to miscalculate was a constant cause for concern, the senior figure in the Axis said.

　　He noted that the Iraqi groups had already unwittingly caused a major regional escalation in January, when they killed three US troops in a drone attack on a US outpost in Jordan.

　　That attack - which crossed multiple US and regional red lines by hitting a neighbouring Arab state and killing Americans - led to a deadly campaign of US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria.

　　So serious was the risk of escalation then, that the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force travelled to Baghdad to tell the factions to dial down their attacks, Iranian and Iraqi sources told Reuters at the time.

　　Attacks on US forces stopped. There was a brief lull. Then, they turned their attention to Israel.

　　A senior Iranian official who asked not to be identified to discuss sensitive matters said this shift in focus was part of a plan to keep the pressure on Israel over the Gaza war.

　　A US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the attacks on Israel jeopardized the stability of Iraq and the region by increasing the risk of military action, including potentially by the U.S. and Israel.

　　"The sophistication and frequency of these attacks highlight the escalating threat posed by these groups" the official said.

　　"The US military will not hesitate to act to protect our forces and support the defence of our allies."

　　'FREE HAND'

　　Iraq has posed a threat to Israel before - notoriously during the 1991 Gulf War when Saddam fired barrages of Scud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa.

　　At the time, Washington prevailed upon Israel not to retaliate to avoid an escalation that could undermine a US -led coalition, including Arab armies, which had been pulled together to eject Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

　　After Hamas militants launched their attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year precipitating the war in Gaza, Iraqi Shi'ite armed factions, like other pro-Iranian groups, pledged to carry out attacks in solidarity with the Palestinians.

　　They initially targeted mainly US forces based in Iraq and Syria. But on Nov. 2 they claimed their first ever attack on Israel.

　　A handful of other claimed attacks on Israel followed in the next few months, including four in February, even after the groups had publicly halted attacks on US forces, according to public claims of responsibility by the Iran-backed groups.

　　The number of claimed attacks shot up to 17 in March, and doubled again in May, averaging more than one a day, though US officials and the source in the pro-Iranian Axis said they are not certain all the claimed attacks were genuine.

　　路透社无法确定到底发动了多少次袭击，也无法确定有多少袭击击中了预定目标。

　　这些袭击经常伴随着社交媒体上发布的视频，据称这些炮弹是从伊拉克偏远的沙漠地点发射的，同时武装分子高喊着主要受到什叶派尊崇的圣像的名字。路透社无法证实视频的日期和地点。

　　虽然以色列很少对其在邻国的行动发表评论，但据信，以色列此前曾在2019年打击过伊拉克的亲伊朗组织，当时以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)表示，他已经让军方“放手”采取行动，“挫败伊朗的计划”。

　　当被要求提供伊朗支持的伊拉克派系发射导弹的信息时，以色列军方拒绝置评。

　　以色列当局公开证实，至少有两起袭击发生在沿海城市埃拉特，据以色列媒体报道，这两起袭击分别发生在11月的一所学校和4月的一个海军基地。

　　此外，军方还宣布拦截了许多“来自东方”的炮弹，这被广泛认为是指伊拉克。袭击没有造成人员伤亡的报告。

　　曾负责军事情报的以色列退役空军上将阿莫斯?亚德林(Amos Yadlin)表示，他认为袭击对以色列构成的威胁程度，比真主党(Hezbollah)或胡塞武装(Houthis)“低一步”。

　　这位美国国防部官员表示，从伊拉克发射的炮弹已经被“在中东不同地点行动的美军拦截，这是我们对以色列国防和地区安全承诺的一部分”。

　　这位官员表示:“随着威胁数量的增加，这些行动的频率有所增加。”